The currency exchange rate will respond to the new support measure. What can we expect for the ruble in the coming days?

Abandoning the purchase of foreign currency will indeed lessen the additional pressure on the ruble, but this alone is insufficient for long-term stabilization. The resilience of the national currency will depend on a comprehensive set of measures, including the recovery of export revenues, curbing inflationary pressure, and controlling the volume of imports. This opinion was expressed by Oleg Kalmanovich, chief analyst at Neomarkets.

— To restore the ruble's exchange rate, it is evident that a number of effective measures will be taken. Firstly, this involves returning to the mandatory sale of foreign currency revenues. Secondly, there will be efforts to reduce capital outflow from Russia. Thirdly, hundreds of billions of dollars belonging to Russian legal entities and individuals are outside of Russian jurisdiction, and programs are clearly needed to bring them back. Ideally, for macroeconomic stability, the dollar exchange rate should be pushed below 100 rubles by early winter. A dollar rate above 110 rubles will pave the way to 120 rubles in the short term, — noted economist and BitRiver communications director Andrey Loboda.

Despite the fact that the Bank of Russia has suspended the purchase of foreign currency until the end of the year, this does not change the overall picture — inflation continues to rise. A hike in the key interest rate to 22-23% can be expected soon. This point was highlighted by Denis Astafyev, founder of the investment company SharesPro.

Additionally, the analyst noted that geopolitical tensions are increasing, and oil prices continue to decline. Donald Trump has openly stated his intention to release strategic reserves of oil and gas for export, which will lead to an increase in supply on the market and further price reductions. The U.S. is not interested in rising oil prices, as it directly affects their domestic inflation. All these factors undoubtedly contribute to the weakening of the ruble.

— The decision by the Bank of Russia to temporarily stop purchasing foreign currency on the domestic market until the end of 2024 is an emergency measure aimed at stabilizing the ruble's exchange rate amid its significant weakening in recent weeks. This decision has already had a short-term positive effect: the ruble has strengthened as the demand for currency from the regulator has temporarily decreased. However, the key question is how sustainable this effect will be, — said Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets.

In the coming days, some strengthening of the ruble can be expected, but after the initial effects of the Central Bank's actions wear off, volatility may return. Especially if the fundamental reasons for the ruble's weakening persist. A range of 100-110 rubles per dollar is quite possible at the beginning of winter. This forecast was made by Oleg Kalmanovich.

— In the coming days, the ruble exchange rate may remain relatively stable or even strengthen if the market responds positively to the regulator's actions. However, if the main economic factors do not change, the dollar to ruble exchange rate may start to rise again in the coming weeks. According to conservative estimates, under current conditions, the dollar could return to the level of 100-105 rubles if no additional measures to support the ruble's exchange rate are taken, — noted Alexander Shneiderman, head of the client support and sales department at Alfa-Forex.