The dollar is expected to reach a new high next week. What will the value of the ruble be?

Recently, significant changes have been occurring in the currency market that deserve careful consideration. Since November 28, the dollar has decreased by 6% and is now around 104 rubles. The Central Bank continues to actively engage in the currency market, selling currency daily amounting to 8.4 billion rubles. This was characterized by financial analyst Vladislav Antonov from BitRiver.

— The economic situation also has positive aspects. The President reported a significant budget surplus: over ten months of 2024, it reached 2.5 trillion rubles. This substantially exceeds the figure of 580 billion rubles for the same period last year, — added Vladislav Antonov.

However, he noted that it is premature to speak of a reversal of the downward trend for the ruble. The Central Bank does not plan to intervene in the current situation, and the existing volumes are insufficient to return the exchange rate to the budgeted 97 rubles per dollar for 2024. Recent sanctions against the financial sector significantly impact the local currency market, requiring time for adaptation and the search for new financial mechanisms.

The market situation is complicated by several factors. Foreign trade transactions are increasingly conducted in national currencies, which reduces overall liquidity and increases market volatility. Consequently, exchange rate fluctuations of 2–5%, according to Vladislav Antonov, will become a common occurrence.

— After the dollar exchange rate surged above 114 rubles, the Central Bank took a series of measures to stabilize the rate. Firstly, the purchase of currency by the Central Bank was canceled, which mirrored the operations of the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule. Secondly, currency traders observed an increase in yuan sales, which may indicate currency interventions by the Central Bank. As a result of these measures, the exchange rate fell to a range of 103–105 rubles per dollar. However, the factors that caused the spike in quotes, including sanctions against Gazprombank, have not disappeared and continue to pressure the ruble, — explained Yaroslav Ostrovsky, a specialist from the Strategic Research Department at “TR” company.

Additionally, there is sustained heightened pre-New Year demand for currency from importers. Moreover, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate.

— The situation in the currency market after the autumn sanctions against banks is still far from calm: currency supply is clearly insufficient, and a deficit is felt. However, authorities and corporations are working on adjusting disrupted payment mechanisms for exports, which should soon lead to a recovery of the ruble to fundamentally justified levels — below 100 rubles per dollar, 105 rubles per euro, and around 13.5 rubles per yuan. But already, stabilization is noticeable, and the panic of last week has subsided, — believes expert in the stock market at “BCS World of Investments” Mikhail Zeltsar.

The strengthening of the ruble is also associated with a temporary correction of the dollar in international markets. Meanwhile, fundamental factors are capable of strengthening the American currency's position again in the coming weeks. This opinion was expressed by the founder of the investment company SharesPro, Denis Astafyev.

For market participants, a key point is the level of 100.50 rubles per dollar. If the exchange rate falls below this mark, it will indicate a fundamental change in the trend. Currently, the dollar is holding around 105 rubles, with a nearby critical level at 105.75 rubles. These observations were made by Vladislav Antonov.

— Overcoming this mark could put the ruble in a difficult position and will require additional stabilization measures from the Central Bank. The current situation demonstrates the complexity and dynamism of the currency market, where every movement requires analysis, — added Vladislav Antonov.

There are several levels to which the ruble could fall. The most realistic at the moment are 100 and 98 rubles per dollar. Overall, everything is heading in this direction because the Central Bank's intervention after speculative spikes in trader activity carries significant weight. It is essential to remember that the regulator and the Ministry of Finance are currently the two main players in the currency market. A more optimistic, albeit less likely scenario is 93–94 rubles per dollar. This forecast was made by financial expert and author of the Telegram channel “Economism” Alexey Krichevsky.

Yaroslav Ostrovsky believes that the situation is not favorable for the ruble's strengthening, and next week it can be expected to weaken to a range of 106–107 rubles per dollar, assuming the Central Bank does not take more radical actions aimed at stabilizing the rate around 100 rubles.

According to Mikhail Zeltsar's estimates, in the coming week, the dollar may test the 100 mark, and the yuan may even temporarily drop below 14.

— After the efforts of the Bank of Russia to stabilize the currency market, the dollar exchange rate will settle in the corridor of 103–108 rubles, and for the euro — 109–114. The ruble's exchange rate will depend on several factors. In particular, how successfully the gap between export and import figures can be increased. A balance of less than 10 billion dollars puts pressure on the Russian ruble. Much will depend on the speed of payments conducted by Russian banks, influenced by recent sanctions, — noted Alexander Shneiderman, head of the Sales and Client Support Department at “Alfa-Forex.”

During this and next week, expectations for another increase in the key rate at the upcoming Central Bank meeting will play a role in strengthening the ruble. Predictions suggest it could rise to 23% or even 25%. This was reported by Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets.

This scenario helps reduce demand for foreign currencies. According to Artem Deev, this will be timely, as currency demand always increases at the end of the year. However, even a rate of 25% will not stop Russians from spending significantly ahead of the holidays.